Analysis of the Arthabaska By-Election

Alex Boissonneault’s victory for the Parti Québécois in Arthabaska confirms an underlying trend: the PQ is establishing itself more than ever as the change alternative to the current government. In doing so, it has made inroads into territory that is not necessarily favorable to it, advancing in a riding with more conservative, rural, and peri-urban values. This is a notable achievement in a constituency that has alternated between the CAQ, the PLQ, and the ADQ for nearly 25 years.

To achieve victory, the newly elected member, Alex Boissonneault, relied on three decisive pillars. Intense grassroots engagement with citizens, without intermediaries and on terrain some describe as populist, was a carefully orchestrated strategy. Additionally, the PQ’s team and electoral machine continues to grow more effective with each by-election. Although the party went through a difficult period recently, its activist base clearly remains strong. Finally, drawing on his local roots, Mr. Boissonneault was able to put forward concrete proposals addressing regional issues, which voters evidently found credible.

With this new gain, the PQ adds an extra measure of legitimacy on its path toward the 2026 general election. It is positioning itself nationally, beyond its natural strongholds. On the eve of the next parliamentary session, the PQ victory also increases pressure on François Legault’s government, which will attempt to move past this latest setback with the upcoming cabinet shuffle.

What to expect for your public affairs efforts

The government could once again be tempted to reinforce a more nationalist and ideologically right-leaning discourse. Challenged from that ideological direction, it will certainly need to place Quebec and its regions at the center of its decisions. It will be worth watching what that means in economic terms.

Furthermore, having been defeated in the heart of the regions, the government may become more attentive to the concerns of those who sustain and grow them. This could be an opportune moment to advance projects that need attention in these territories. This is all the more apparent given the real divide that emerged between Victoriaville and the surrounding municipalities. We witnessed the urban-rural dichotomy applied at its most local scale. Adopting positioning strategies along these lines would be both prudent and valuable.

For central Quebec, economic stakeholders and other organizations should seize the opportunity for a new, constructive dialogue with an elected official who is ready and eager to demonstrate a pragmatic, renewed approach. The PQ in governing mode wants to appear credible and as a carrier of alternatives. This should be leveraged, across all of Quebec. Keeping opposition parties in mind in public affairs strategies clearly makes full sense.