The departure of Premier Legault has opened a new political chapter in Quebec. In this story, two caucus members have chosen to enter the CAQ leadership race with the ultimate goal of becoming Premier of Quebec.
Early trends in this internal campaign within the governing party appear to favour the former Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy. Now simply MNA for Sanguinet, Christine Fréchette quickly secured the support of several colleagues. For his part, Bernard Drainville, who held the position of Minister of Environment, the Fight Against Climate Change, Wildlife and Parks, entered the race with fewer endorsements but stronger momentum on the ground and among cabinet staff.
Will the regions and the CAQ’s ADQ roots decide the race?
The challenge in predicting the winner is that the decision rests in the hands of party members, not the general public. Hence the importance of not underestimating the weight of the regions and the more right-leaning sensibilities of CAQ activists.
In this context, could CAQ members seize the opportunity to send a strong signal for the party to return to what made it successful in 2018, namely the clear defence of rural Quebec, its economic fabric and its nationalist values? Let us recall that the theme of the regions was again front and centre at the 2021 general council in Trois-Rivières.
The former minister’s economic record versus the « real people »
SMEs make up 97% of Quebec businesses. At a time when the Legault government achieved several successes but also suffered setbacks that left their mark, CAQ members may be tempted to shift course in favour of the businesses that form the backbone of Quebec’s economy. This possibility is all the more plausible given that the Parti Québécois clearly positioned itself in favour of SMEs at its fall caucus held in Beauce.
If Ms. Fréchette hopes to win, she will need to distance herself from her predecessor’s legacy. Her profile as an elected representative from the greater Montreal area with a background in the Montreal business community could give many members pause. Her position on the third link is a prime example.
Aware of this delicate context, Bernard Drainville is working to set himself apart. By speaking to the « real people, » those who get up early to go to work and who hold nationalist values at heart without supporting independence, he is attempting to outflank Ms. Fréchette on the economic right (the so-called third way). By adding a leaner state into the equation, the MNA for Lévis is clearly drawing on the ADQ playbook.
« It’s the economy, stupid »
As Bill Clinton’s chief strategist James Carville once noted, the economy is the people’s top priority: grocery costs, gas prices, purchasing power and economic growth. This holds true in the leadership race, where the majority of policy positions are tied to Quebec’s economy. Beyond the themes already discussed, the question of economic immigration should not be overlooked. Regions and businesses, facing a labour shortage, are suffering greatly from recent restrictions. Ms. Fréchette appeared to maintain a firm stance, while Mr. Drainville showed himself more attuned to concerns from the field.
Whatever the outcome, CAQ members will make a decision that will mark Quebec’s history, the last premier to resign being Lucien Bouchard in 2001. But they will also have the CAQ’s political survival in mind. And if the recent Léger poll is any indication, Ms. Fréchette holds the advantage on that front.
What we take away, in conclusion, is that Quebec’s economy remains at the centre of political attention and that candidates would be well advised to focus on the regions and SMEs in their positioning.
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