Chronicle of a Predicted Victory in Terrebonne

Following Pierre Fitzgibbon’s resignation as minister and member of the National Assembly in September 2024, the riding of Terrebonne was awaiting its new representative. Without much surprise, the Parti Québécois managed to elect its candidate, former PQ president Catherine Gentilcore, with 52.74% of votes cast. It should be noted that this is a homecoming for the residents of Terrebonne, a riding that experienced an alternation between the PQ and the Liberals until the 2018 election. A victory that signals what’s to come?

What narrative for the PQ and the CAQ?

Even though the Parti Québécois still leads in the polls at 30% of voting intentions, the latest Léger poll put the CAQ at 24%, a gap that has been narrowing over the past few weeks. In recent months, the premier’s popularity has dropped sharply, and his approval rating, combined with the early departure of superminister Pierre Fitzgibbon before the end of his term, has likely not helped. 

However, even before the by-election was called, polls already had the Parti Québécois winning in Terrebonne. A victory fuelled by a mix of discontent toward the government and a return to past affinities with the sovereignist party. Another CAQ riding falls into PQ hands. François Legault did not even wait for the end of election night to concede victory to his opponent. 

Does this mean the Parti Québécois should rest on its laurels? Not at all. The victory was relatively straightforward for the péquistes this time around, and the current climate with the United States could, as it did to a lesser extent during the pandemic, give the incumbent government additional exposure. 

A woman in the PQ caucus

This PQ candidate’s victory in Terrebonne carries a doubly positive message. The Parti Québécois asserts itself in a second CAQ riding following its « surprise » win in Jean-Talon in 2023, but also because Ms. Gentilcore now adds a female voice to what was an all-male caucus. 

One can imagine this comes as a relief to the party. During the Jean-Talon election, the PQ had approached several women in hopes of attracting them as candidates, to no avail. 

Catherine Gentilcore, already committed to the party as its president, emerged as an obvious choice for PQ supporters: deep knowledge of the party and political issues, a combative sovereignist, and above all, ready to take the leap. 

Terrebonne, a preview of the next election?

With the current economic uncertainty, the gradual return of the Liberal Party to the political scene, and the upcoming federal election results, nothing is more undecided.

A politician like Pablo Rodriguez leading the Liberal Party could change the perception of a party that was deemed « dead » just a few months ago. François Legault’s party could position itself as a reassuring force for Quebecers in the face of the American threat, even though, for now, the government is struggling to push its Quebec-first message due to the space the federal government is occupying. The Parti Québécois could maintain its status as the responsible party, one that absorbs a share of CAQ-dissatisfied voters. The question remains whether that segment of voters will accept the PQ committing to a referendum in its first term. Not impossible, but challenging.

Another test will certainly come in the next by-election in Arthabaska. Éric Lefebvre, the current independent member, is stepping down to run for the Conservative Party in the federal election, which will likely come in the next few weeks.

One thing is certain: the road to 2026 is still long before anyone can predict the next election.