Jean-Talon By-Election: Who Has the Edge?

If recent polls are to be believed, Monday’s by-election victory in Jean-Talon will be a close call. By stepping down from her position at the end of last July, former MNA Joëlle Boutin inadvertently opened the door to new possibilities. So who stands a chance? Catapulte offers a brief profile of the main-party candidates in the days leading up to a highly anticipated vote in Quebec City*.

Élise Avard Bernier

While the Liberal Party is struggling to find its footing on the political scene, its candidate nonetheless proves to be a strong pick for the by-election. An entrepreneur who founded the popular sites Vie de parents and Vie de grands-parents, Ms. Avard Bernier has demonstrated her community involvement, and efforts to associate her with Marwah Risky could help her pick up a few extra points. The latest Qc125 data puts the Quebec Liberal Party at 12%. Too low to win, certainly, but a respectable showing in this former Liberal stronghold could help restore the PLQ’s image.

Olivier Bolduc

The Québec solidaire candidate is a veteran of electoral campaigns. On his fifth attempt (the third time running in Jean-Talon for this party), candidate Bolduc has repeatedly demonstrated his perseverance, including within his own party, where the leadership and many members had preferred to see his rival win the nomination. This former railway worker turned court stenographer had finished second in the 2022 general election, receiving 24% of the vote. The stakes for QS are primarily symbolic: the party would like to keep hammering its message as an alternative to the CAQ and increase its caucus outside of Montreal. A 7-point rise in voting intentions in the Quebec City region observed in the latest Leger poll may not be enough.

Pascal Paradis

A former corporate lawyer turned founder of Lawyers Without Borders Canada, the Parti Québécois candidate made a rather explosive entrance into politics. Talks with the CAQ around a potential candidacy for the governing party in 2022 led both parties to accuse each other of lying. He is nonetheless a significant acquisition for the PQ, which could really use a fourth musketeer in the National Assembly. There is no doubt that PQ supporters, galvanized by a favourable polling trend both nationally and in the Quebec City region, would like to present themselves as the true opposition to the government in the eyes of voters. The only riding-specific poll conducted in Jean-Talon, along with the latest Leger survey, puts the PQ in first place in the region, but nothing is settled. A first victory in this traditionally federalist riding will require the PQ to outperform the CAQ and Québec solidaire get-out-the-vote machines.

Jesse Robitaille

The Parti conservateur du Québec candidate does not mince words when it comes to expressing his positions. A staunch opponent of the tramway project and a fervent defender of a third highway link to the east, the emergency pre-hospital care student decided to throw his hat in the ring even though his party leader, Éric Duhaime, chose not to enter the race. Indeed, the first Leger poll gave the PCQ 5% of voting intentions in Jean-Talon, poor timing for a party leader who would very much like to enter the National Assembly. Never missing an opportunity to highlight the government’s reversal on the Quebec-Lévis tunnel file, the Conservative Party has the potential to undercut the CAQ and rally a certain protest vote. The question remains whether the party will even manage to replicate its result from the last election in the riding.

Marie-Anik Shoiry

The CAQ candidate is running in her first electoral campaign, though she is not entirely new to political life. Ms. Shoiry’s father served as mayor and then city councillor of Sillery within the newly amalgamated city of Quebec, and was active in municipal politics for many years. Socially engaged herself, she founded, after several years of practice as a lawyer, the organization Vide ta sacoche, which focuses on collecting, recovering, and distributing hygiene and cosmetic products to women in need. With the CAQ having apparently lost 10 points in Quebec City voting intentions according to the latest Leger poll, nothing is guaranteed for the CAQ candidate. She can, however, count on the support of ministers and MNAs who have repeatedly canvassed door-to-door on her behalf. Unlike other by-elections, this one seems to have captured voters’ attention: with 22% turnout in advance polls, it remains to be seen whether that interest will work in the governing party’s favour or not.

*In alphabetical order