Trump Back in the White House: A Period of Uncertainty Ahead for Canada?

The U.S. presidential campaign that just ended was anything but orthodox. From Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July to make way for his vice-president Kamala Harris, to Donald Trump’s surreal claims accusing Haitian migrants of eating cats and dogs, the twists and turns were plentiful. Then, in a dramatic finale, Donald Trump won the White House on the strength of economic anxieties.

On this side of the border, the economic and migration consequences of Donald Trump’s return to power will be very real. Mass deportations, economic retrenchment, lawsuits against the « enemies of the regime »: the U.S. president was very clear about his political agenda, which portends a difficult near future for the Canadian economy.

The controversial figure is known for making decisions driven more by dogmatism than by rationality. Imposing tariffs on all imports would harm not only the Canadian economy but the American economy as well, in a context of globalized production. Supply chains on both sides of the border are deeply intertwined. A product can cross the 49th parallel multiple times, through different stages of the production chain, before reaching its final form.

At a time when the country has been receiving record numbers of newcomers, increased pressure at the borders is also to be expected, given the threats to deport all undocumented immigrants and the rising tensions around these issues. Some, in a panic, may be tempted to try their luck in Canada, which has already welcomed a large number of temporary immigrants over the past two years.

The ballot box question?

But how did Americans come to prefer the former president (found guilty on 34 criminal counts, it bears repeating) over former California attorney general Kamala Harris?

The ballot box issue appears to have been the economy. Our neighbour to the South, like us, is suffering from a cost-of-living crisis. With interest rates remaining high, housing and homes priced out of reach, and grocery bills climbing ever higher, the average American has grown poorer. Donald Trump offers an easy, even simplistic, answer to this problem: « Make America Great Again. » « We will fix the economy! »

With barely a few months of campaigning, Kamala Harris was unable to distance herself from her president. For many, Joe Biden failed to curb inflation and restore balance to the post-pandemic American economy.

Another significant factor: Black Americans and Latino voters did not turn out in large numbers, according to exit poll data collected by NBC News. White Americans make up 58% of the U.S. population according to the 2023 national census, yet they represented 71% of voters, again according to NBC. Latino Americans account for 19.5% of the population but represented only 12% of voters in ten key states. Black Americans, who voted overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris, make up 13.7% of the population but were only 11% of voters. Adding to this was a notable Republican surge among Latino voters compared to the 2016 and 2020 cycles, with candidate Trump securing no less than 45% of votes within those communities. In such a close election, every vote counts.

The party Donald Trump represents also very likely tipped the scales. Year in and year out, rural America votes red. Had the businessman run as an independent, the outcome would probably have been different.

Only time will tell whether the politician set to lead one of the world’s greatest nations in January will implement his full agenda. What is certain is that months and years of uncertainty lie ahead on the world stage.