What Does the PQ Victory in the Chicoutimi By-Election Signal?

The temperature has dropped yet again for the current government, with a fourth consecutive defeat at the hands of the Parti Québécois in a by-election. After Jean-Talon, Terrebonne and Arthabaska, Chicoutimi has now elected a new péquiste MNA. This by-election was triggered by the resignation, last September 4, of former Municipal Affairs minister Andrée Laforest, who vacated her seat to run for mayor of Saguenay, a bid that ended in defeat.

Marie-Karlynn Laflamme becomes the seventh MNA for the party of René Lévesque, capturing 45% of the vote and outpacing Catherine Morissette of the Parti conservateur du Québec, who received 26% of the vote. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), for its part, earned barely 12% of the vote, 50 points lower than its 2022 result in the riding, which had been the party’s highest score in Quebec.

A preview of the general election?

Despite a rather low voter turnout of 35%, this victory confirms the trend and offers a preview of what could happen at the October 2026 general election. And not only for the winning party.

In his victory speech, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon wasted no time looking ahead to the fall, comparing the calibre of the team he is building to that of 1976. He is a leader who seeks to position his party as the « true alternative » and to plant in Quebecers’ minds the idea of a PQ government waiting in the wings.

On the question of sovereignty, PSPP has chosen a new approach. He wants to appeal to people’s intelligence rather than forcing the issue. He acknowledges that people are worried in the current context, given the situation to the south of the border and the trade war with the United States.

The PCQ in a strong position

The PQ is not, however, the only party drawing attention. The Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) continues to deliver consistent results. After a second-place finish in Arthabaska with 35% of the vote, the PCQ repeated the feat in Chicoutimi with 26%. These results, combined with polls that are increasingly favourable to the party, suggest that the right is attracting a significant share of the Quebec population, particularly in the regions.

For strategists in the other parties, this is a factor that will need to be built into the 2026 electoral calculus. The PCQ is no longer a passing phenomenon: it is a player establishing a lasting presence in the Quebec political landscape. A positioning that will favour candidate recruitment.

And the third option?

In contrast, the CAQ’s situation illustrates a well-known reality in politics: a party in the midst of a leadership race divides itself. Even though François Legault remains in office as premier, the candidates are in campaign mode. This is a situation that can create challenges for decision-making, as we see with the third-link project.

The reality is that it is difficult to capture citizens’ attention for as long as the party has not named a new leader.

The fact that Legault did not travel to Chicoutimi during the campaign sends the signal of a premier managing the end of an era. Christine Fréchette and Bernard Drainville both visited the riding, but in candidate-courting mode rather than in support of candidate Francis Tremblay. The party had no mobilizing leader, no clear message, and no momentum to defend the riding.

That said, this result should be taken with a grain of salt. In a low-turnout by-election, the electoral machine can make a difference. Once again, the Parti Québécois was able to get out the vote to seal a victory that was essential for confirming its status as a « government in waiting. »

It remains to be seen whether October 2026 will bring an election of change. The question is also how the leaders of the other parties will manage to assert themselves and move the polls during what promises to be a very long campaign period.