With the return of the parliamentary session, our team has put together a summary of what lies ahead in the coming weeks. The political news is off to a running start with the departure of super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon, which will trigger a by-election in Terrebonne over the next six months. At the federal level, the end of the NDP-Liberal agreement may pave the way for earlier-than-expected elections. And let’s not forget the approaching municipal elections in November 2025. It’s safe to say the coming months will be marked by significant shifts across the political chessboard.
Political Party Positioning
Parti Québécois
Let’s start with the Parti Québécois, which leads in the polls. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is clearly benefiting from the winds of change blowing across the Western world, much like what we’ve seen in France and the United Kingdom. At 29-33% in the polls, the PQ’s troops must now work to consolidate their support and convert votes of dissatisfaction with the government into genuine backing for their ideas, in order to maintain their lead ahead of the next elections in 2026.
The by-election in Terrebonne, which Premier Legault must call within the next six months following Pierre Fitzgibbon’s departure, will test the strength and distribution of the PQ vote. At the National Assembly, the four musketeers will need to demonstrate how the sovereignty project can meet citizens’ expectations. The closer we get to the 2026 deadline, the more PSPP’s troops will need to lay out how they plan to govern differently. Immigration is likely to be one of the examples put forward by the party this fall.
Coalition Avenir Québec
For its part, the Coalition Avenir Québec government managed to stop the bleeding over the summer. At roughly 24-25%, the government can take comfort in having two more years to prove to voters that it deserves a third mandate. Immigration, fiscal consolidation, infrastructure, and energy are likely to be at the heart of its political agenda this fall. As for the perennial priority of Quebecers, health care, the transition to the new Sante Quebec agency, which will conclude on December 1, will be worth watching as the winter virus season approaches.
On the fiscal front, the government must present a plan to return to balanced budgets with the 2025 budget. Fall 2024 will be used to lay the groundwork. Austerity is not in the CAQ’s DNA. Reducing expectations for new ministerial initiatives, cutting red tape, and improving government efficiency will be the three drivers to get there. Given the enormous sums needed to return to a balanced budget, it’s a tall order.
In the coming months, there will be more no than yes. If you are a business, association, or sectoral group, you’d be better off presenting a turnkey solution to the government. As the saying goes, it’s better to organize yourself than to be organized by the government.
It’s also worth noting that with the collapse of the agreement between the New Democratic Party and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, the spotlight will increasingly turn to the next federal election, which could give the CAQ government a bit of breathing room.
Quebec Liberal Party
At nearly 20% in the polls, the Quebec Liberal Party still has no leader, but it does have a proposed Quebec constitution carried by the son of a former leader and premier who remains beloved by Liberal activists. Through the positions of its parliamentary wing, the 2024-2025 political year will be defined by the pre-race and then the official leadership race for the PLQ. Charles Milliard appears to have an organizational edge. Denis Coderre and his ongoing tax situation continue to generate headlines, but he has yet to demonstrate any ability to broaden support beyond his flamboyant personality. If he can’t win over the party membership, the former Montreal mayor will need to sell a huge number of membership cards. Pablo Rodriguez is still gauging his support, while Antoine Tardif, the young mayor of Victoriaville, has put rumours about his candidacy to rest.
In the chamber, drawing on its experience managing the state, the PLQ will continue to press the government on its fiscal management, turning what has been perceived as a weakness (the austerity of the Couillard years) into a source of credibility on the issue. As the official opposition, they have the members, the parliamentary time, and the resources to do the work.
Québec Solidaire
Québec Solidaire had a difficult spring session and will attempt to regroup this fall, with the replacement of Émilise Lessard-Therrien, a revision of the party’s bylaws, and an update to its policy positions as the backdrop.
First, the race for co-spokesperson. Ruba Ghazal has already announced her intention to run, having garnered 49.7% of the vote in the second round of the previous race. Are we heading toward a coronation? Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois would probably not complain about avoiding a race that would bring additional debate and division within the ranks. And there will be no shortage of debate during the program review scheduled for the fall. Some said the hardest part was done when GND won the vote to revise the program. But the devil is in the details. Will we see the various internal factions of Québec Solidaire at work? It will be a moment of truth for the parliamentary wing, and a significant risk of distraction for the party.
In the chamber, the party is not immune to the battle to become the true opposition to the CAQ government. Despite gains on housing, they must try to reassert themselves in the political agenda. To do so, QS faces the challenge of broadening its support while avoiding alienating its partisan base. A genuine balancing act for Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and his future new co-spokesperson.
Bills to Watch
An Energy Reform Without Its Architect
Bill 69, An Act to ensure responsible governance of energy resources and to amend various legislative provisions, is a substantial piece of legislation that will mobilize members of parliament from the first day of the session, and notably without Pierre Fitzgibbon, who made this reform a true government priority. In Quebec, where the energy question has an almost identity-defining dimension, the issue of modulating residential rates, as well as the opening to private self-production of electricity, will undoubtedly spark debates as passionate as they are necessary. The bill provides for the creation of an Integrated Energy Resource Management Plan (PGIRE) to guide the actions and decisions of the government, local and regional partners, energy distributors, and project promoters. It’s a safe bet that discussions on Quebec’s energy future will continue beyond Bill 69, extending into the more detailed development of this PGIRE.
A Revolution in Infrastructure?
Bill 61 aims to create the Mobilite Infra Quebec transit agency to facilitate the delivery of future public transit projects. After the government used the CDPQ to build the REM, the Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Genevieve Guilbault, wants to add another tool to her kit for delivering large-scale public transit projects across Quebec. Her colleague Jonatan Julien is also attempting, with his Bill 62, which he himself describes as a « revolution, » to ease the conditions for carrying out major infrastructure projects by facilitating the conclusion of agreements with private partners that will accompany public bodies from a project’s conception through to its delivery. Debates on these bills will likely take place against a backdrop of ongoing sharp exchanges over the Quebec City tramway and the third link files, for which Minister Guilbault has promised an update this fall.
Reforming the Mining Regime
Tabled in the spring by the Minister of Natural Resources and Forests, Maite Blanchette-Vezina, Bill 63 has pleased neither mining industry representatives nor opponents of mining. In her bill, the minister chose to partially address the concerns of citizens and groups raised during consultations held a few months prior, and to prohibit the purchase of mining claims on private land to prevent speculation. The purchase of claims has indeed become a serious source of concern in certain regions. For advocacy groups, the minister should go further by ensuring that projects are socially acceptable and that environmental risk mitigation measures are more robust before any mining project is authorized. In short, a significant challenge for a minister who will need to reconcile thoughtful mining development, under the banner of the energy transition, with social acceptability.
Sonia Lebel and the Breaking Down of Professional Silos
With Bill 67, the President of the Treasury Board, still engaged in intense negotiations with nurses from the Federation interprofessionnelle de la sante (FIQ), is again attempting to expand the powers of certain health professionals. Most notably, adoption of the bill would allow pharmacists to prescribe or renew prescriptions for common illnesses, while nurses with a certification, psychologists, guidance counsellors, sexologists, and speech therapists would be able to diagnose mental disorders. Add to this the question of staff mobility. Along the same lines, Bill 68, tabled by Labour Minister Jean Boulet, aims to reduce the administrative burden on physicians and thereby free up as many as 750,000 appointments per year.
Still with the goal of providing more services to citizens, Bill 67 would also create new restricted practice permits for certain professional services and allow all professionals to incorporate as non-profit organizations.
Special Commission on the Impact of Screens and Social Media on the Health and Development of Youth
The creation of a special commission on the impact of screens and social media on young people was adopted unanimously through a motion of the National Assembly. The goal? To better regulate the use of screens and social media among youth. Public hearings and special consultations will be held in the fall, where numerous organizations, including specialists in education and technology, will be invited to share their perspectives and propose solutions to guide future public policy. The commission covers a wide range of issues, from youth screen time to the addictive mechanisms used by certain applications, and from access to social media to advertising targeting children on platforms and apps. The aim is now to strike a balance between the beneficial use of digital technologies and the protection of young people from certain effects that can become harmful to their health and development.
Upcoming Bills
Construction
The construction sector will continue to undergo changes, as Labour Minister Jean Boulet has signalled his intention to table a new bill to increase public protection and improve construction quality.
Post-Secondary Education
The Premier has also telegraphed his intention to have the Minister of Higher Education, Pascale Dery, table a bill aimed at reducing the number of international students admitted to its educational institutions, raising concerns among regional CEGEPs in particular.
A Mid-Mandate Atmosphere
Mid-mandate is often a low point for elected members. The excitement of the beginning of a mandate is over. Every member has been through all the parliamentary exercises. Everyone is, or should be, comfortable. On the other hand, the pre-electoral frenzy that brings people together is still far off. It is also a time when internal tensions can flare up. Complaints arise about poor communications, internal decision-making processes, lack of information, and so on. The various whips and caucus chairs of the political parties will need to be alert and demonstrate leadership to keep members in a positive mindset. A united caucus allows the leader to focus on 2026. An undisciplined caucus distracts the leader just as it does political observers. Which goes to show that one person’s misfortune can be another’s gain.
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